Bitcoin Up or Down on August 27?

● quote 27s ago

Crypto→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $40.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $100.3KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on August 27?

95.5¢

4.5¢

Down

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution82Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:38 trades$29.3K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUp$6.7K@ 91¢·coinman2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

Up pressure: $4.3K net directional flow in 1h.

+$4.3K

+$22.5K

tracked

$29.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: Up · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 30 minutes old.
•Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Up or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-27 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 27 '26 12:00 ET candle.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 27 '26 12:00 ET candle.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 27 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 27 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Up@ 94.0¢1h ago

15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hUp · $4.3K

6hUp · $22.5K

24hUp · $23.1K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current95.5¢

VWAP 24h85.1¢▲ above by 10.4pp

VWAP 7d85.1¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$4.4K

90¢

$16.1K

85¢

$2.2K

80¢

$2.1K

75¢

$67

70¢

$37

65¢

60¢

$1.5K

55¢

50¢

45¢

$2.9K

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

coinman2Up$24.6K

BUY VWAP 90.9¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.