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Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)

● quote 26s ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $481.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $360.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A
100.0¢
FURIA
0.1¢
paiN
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$186.6K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FURIA · $152.0K net·4 wallets(2🐋)·$152.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFURIA$98.8K@ 55¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

paiN pressure: $1.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.8K
6h
+$149.4K
tracked
$186.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: FURIA · $152.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +30.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 30.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from paiN or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 23:55 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA wins 2 or more maps than paiN in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "paiN".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between FURIA and paiN in the BLAST Open Porto Group A, initially scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA wins 2 or more maps than paiN in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "paiN". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 26, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x29b5…cc6c2 linked markets · $28.7K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $23.9K gross
RIPabloEscobar2 linked markets · $20.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY FURIA1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY FURIA2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY FURIA@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +8.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY FURIA@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp
Latest book event: FURIA DOWN 11.0pp · near-book depth $6.0K → $33 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FURIA; negative values favor paiN. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hpaiN · $1.8K
6hFURIA · $149.4K
24hFURIA · $155.5K

FURIA price VWAP

Volume-weighted FURIA price. paiN fills are converted to the complementary FURIA probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h58.3¢▲ above by 41.6pp
VWAP 7d58.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FURIA price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$11.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$117
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$168.9K
50¢
$5.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFURIA$16.8K@ 56.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFURIA$98.8K@ 55.4¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFURIA$11.0K@ 55.0¢
Donghui0x5877…d894
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFURIA$14.4K@ 56.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115FURIA$117.9K
BUY VWAP 55.5¢·3 fills
0xf559…f462FURIA$14.4K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
0x29b5…cc6cFURIA$14.1K
BUY VWAP 55.8¢·5 fills
DonghuiFURIA$12.5K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.