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Toledo vs. Michigan State

Sports→Settlement: Michigan StateLiquidity: $293.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $470.5KEvent: Toledo vs. Michigan State
0.0¢
Toledo payout
100.0¢
Michigan State payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Michigan State · $14.0K net·11 wallets·$62.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMichigan State$50.0K@ 80¢·Kosherlocks

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Michigan State. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-05 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Toledo wins, the market will resolve to "Toledo".

•If Michigan State wins, the market will resolve to "Michigan State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 4 at 8:00PM ET: If Toledo wins, the market will resolve to "Toledo". If Michigan State wins, the market will resolve to "Michigan State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Michigan State@ 79.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Michigan State@ 79.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Toledo; negative values favor Michigan State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMichigan State · $602
6hMichigan State · $99.0K
24hMichigan State · $93.8K

Toledo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Toledo price. Michigan State fills are converted to the complementary Toledo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h17.3¢▼ below by 17.3pp
VWAP 7d17.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Toledo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.4K
30¢
$0
25¢
$39
20¢
$86.3K
15¢
$29.2K
10¢
$6.5K
5¢
$17.9K
0¢
← now
$8.0K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMichigan State$10.0K@ 79.0¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—3 days ago
BUYMichigan State$50.0K@ 79.5¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—3 days ago
BUYMichigan State$10.0K@ 79.0¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KosherlocksMichigan State$70.0K
BUY VWAP 79.4¢·3 fills
0b1feMichigan State$37.1K
BUY VWAP 87.3¢·7 fills
0x2c33…0563Toledo$18.4K
BUY VWAP 9.3¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.