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Tulane vs. Duke

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $91.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $440.1KEvent: Tulane vs. Duke
0.1¢
Tulane
100.0¢
Duke
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets95Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution98Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:74 trades$243.7K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Duke · $7.8K net·3 wallets·$8.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDuke$36.6K@ 74¢·wr0ngw4yb3tt0r

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Duke pressure: $8.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.0K
6h
−$183.6K
tracked
$243.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: Duke · $7.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Since latest position change: -25.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 29 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Duke or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Tulane wins, the market will resolve to "Tulane".

•If Duke wins, the market will resolve to "Duke".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 3:30PM ET: If Tulane wins, the market will resolve to "Tulane". If Duke wins, the market will resolve to "Duke". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Tulane@ 26.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Duke@ 75.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Duke@ 76.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Duke@ 76.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Duke UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $5.0K → $18.2K · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tulane; negative values favor Duke. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDuke · $8.0K
6hDuke · $183.6K
24hDuke · $183.6K

Tulane price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tulane price. Duke fills are converted to the complementary Tulane probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h23.8¢▼ below by 23.7pp
VWAP 7d23.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tulane price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$212.2K
20¢
$5
15¢
$225
10¢
$6.0K
5¢
$25.2K
0¢
← now
$25

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDuke$36.6K@ 74.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYTulane$14.5K@ 26.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYDuke$29.8K@ 74.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYDuke$14.6K@ 74.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYDuke$14.6K@ 74.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYTulane$12.3K@ 26.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

wr0ngw4yb3tt0rDuke$110.7K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·8 fills
quavooDuke$71.2K
BUY VWAP 74.1¢·18 fills
Sassy-BucketTulane$29.7K
BUY VWAP 25.9¢·3 fills
CanadianGooseDuke$20.9K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.