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US Open ATP: Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $101.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $677.9KEvent: US Open ATP: Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea
36.5¢
Michael Zheng
63.5¢
Arthur Gea
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets38Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:167 trades$299.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Michael Zheng · $18.0K net·13 wallets·$48.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Gea$21.4K@ 51¢·afraz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Arthur Gea pressure: $32.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$32.5K
6h
−$90.1K
tracked
$299.3K

13 verified profitable wallets: Michael Zheng · $18.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 54

Since latest large flow: +13.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 13.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Arthur Gea or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-12 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Michael Zheng and Arthur Gea in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michael Zheng' if Michael Zheng advances against Arthur Gea. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Michael Zheng. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Arthur Gea1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Arthur Gea1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Gea@ 51.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Gea@ 46.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +3.0pp
Latest book event: Michael Zheng DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $16.1K → $9.6K · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Michael Zheng; negative values favor Arthur Gea. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Gea · $32.5K
6hArthur Gea · $90.1K
24hArthur Gea · $90.6K

Michael Zheng price VWAP

Volume-weighted Michael Zheng price. Arthur Gea fills are converted to the complementary Michael Zheng probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h49.7¢▼ below by 13.2pp
VWAP 7d49.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Michael Zheng price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$77
55¢
$86.8K
50¢
$103.6K
45¢
$42.8K
40¢
$7.7K
35¢
← now
$55.2K
30¢
$3.2K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArthur Gea$21.4K@ 51.1¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYMichael Zheng$10.0K@ 53.2¢
soukaev0x7568…2ce1
🐋—36 minutes ago
BUYArthur Gea$13.1K@ 65.0¢
n0tTODAY0x89a6…429a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Gea$20.0K@ 47.8¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Gea$20.0K@ 45.6¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYArthur Gea$16.0K@ 43.8¢
Postings0xd9bf…6c60
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Arthur Gea$40.0K
BUY VWAP 46.7¢·2 fills
afrazArthur Gea$21.4K
BUY VWAP 51.1¢·1 fill
PostingsArthur Gea$16.0K
BUY VWAP 43.8¢·1 fill
n0tTODAYArthur Gea$13.1K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Arthur Gea$12.9K
BUY VWAP 50.5¢·5 fills
ferrariChampions2026Michael Zheng$11.8K
BUY VWAP 38.7¢·3 fills
soukaevMichael Zheng$10.0K
BUY VWAP 53.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.