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Western Kentucky vs. Nevada

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $14.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $323.9KEvent: Western Kentucky vs. Nevada
22.5¢
Western Kentucky
77.5¢
Nevada
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly82Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution74Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:87 trades$153.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nevada · $3.3K net·3 wallets·$3.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWestern Kentucky$31.9K@ 51¢·Sassy-Bucket

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Nevada SETUP
What the tape says

Nevada pressure: $3.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.1K
6h
−$77.0K
tracked
$153.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: Nevada · $3.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 59

Since latest large flow: -28.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Nevada or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Western Kentucky wins, the market will resolve to "Western Kentucky".

•If Nevada wins, the market will resolve to "Nevada".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 10:30PM ET: If Western Kentucky wins, the market will resolve to "Western Kentucky". If Nevada wins, the market will resolve to "Nevada". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Western Kentucky@ 51.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -28.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Nevada@ 49.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +13.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Nevada@ 49.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +13.0pp
Latest book event: Nevada DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $17.0K → $6.0K · 24s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Western Kentucky; negative values favor Nevada. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNevada · $3.1K
6hNevada · $77.0K
24hNevada · $77.0K

Western Kentucky price VWAP

Volume-weighted Western Kentucky price. Nevada fills are converted to the complementary Western Kentucky probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.5¢
VWAP 24h50.1¢▼ below by 27.6pp
VWAP 7d50.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Western Kentucky price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$151.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$5
30¢
$0
25¢
$62
20¢
← now
$49
15¢
$3.4K
10¢
$174
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYWestern Kentucky$31.9K@ 51.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooNevada$111.5K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·54 fills
Sassy-BucketWestern Kentucky$37.7K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.