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Miami Marlins vs. Kansas City Royals

● quote 54s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $14.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $419.2KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. Kansas City Royals
99.0¢
Miami Marlins
1.1¢
Kansas City Royals
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution81Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:97 trades$190.6K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 65 min agoofficial metadata 44s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Miami Marlins · $26.8K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$39.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKansas City Royals$20.0K@ 53¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$34.4K
tracked
$190.6K

7 verified profitable wallets: Miami Marlins · $26.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: -31.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 65 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-08 23:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for September 1 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Kansas City Royals@ 33.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.0pp1h INVALIDATED -30.8pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Kansas City Royals@ 37.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -24.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Miami Marlins2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Kansas City Royals@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -18.0pp1h INVALIDATED -37.0pp
Latest book event: Miami Marlins UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $7.3K → $212 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Miami Marlins; negative values favor Kansas City Royals. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMiami Marlins · $0
6hMiami Marlins · $34.4K
24hMiami Marlins · $36.3K

Miami Marlins price VWAP

Volume-weighted Miami Marlins price. Kansas City Royals fills are converted to the complementary Miami Marlins probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.0¢
VWAP 24h58.8¢▲ above by 40.1pp
VWAP 7d58.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Miami Marlins price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$349
90¢
$1.1K
85¢
$19.5K
80¢
$402
75¢
$13.8K
70¢
$10.8K
65¢
$20.4K
60¢
$11.5K
55¢
$168
50¢
$42.6K
45¢
$69.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMiami Marlins$15.3K@ 85.0¢
sifonman0x6ac9…e85a
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMiami Marlins$10.3K@ 66.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKansas City Royals$10.0K@ 34.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKansas City Royals$20.0K@ 53.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKansas City Royals$10.4K@ 51.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMiami Marlins$15.4K@ 50.0¢
chanello0xf3a6…71bd
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMiami Marlins$12.3K@ 49.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafKansas City Royals$69.3K
BUY VWAP 48.4¢·10 fills
sifonmanMiami Marlins$17.1K
BUY VWAP 82.2¢·2 fills
chanelloMiami Marlins$15.4K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardMiami Marlins$15.2K
BUY VWAP 74.6¢·3 fills
Talvez10Miami Marlins$12.3K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
1winstreak1Miami Marlins$11.2K
BUY VWAP 60.9¢·4 fills
ferrariChampions2026Miami Marlins$10.3K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.