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US Open ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Gael Monfils

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $183.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $713.1KEvent: US Open ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Gael Monfils
0.5¢
Adolfo Vallejo
99.9¢
Gael Monfils
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:186 trades$315.5K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Adolfo Vallejo · $39.0K net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$70.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGael Monfils$44.0K@ 100¢·0xAlikz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Gael Monfils pressure: $65.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$65.0K
6h
−$31.3K
tracked
$315.5K

14 verified profitable wallets: Adolfo Vallejo · $39.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: -21.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Gael Monfils or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Adolfo Vallejo and Gael Monfils in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adolfo Vallejo' if Adolfo Vallejo advances against Gael Monfils. This market will resolve to 'Gael Monfils' if Gael Monfils advances against Adolfo Vallejo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Adolfo Vallejo@ 22.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Adolfo Vallejo@ 66.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -15.0pp1h INVALIDATED -44.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Adolfo Vallejo@ 57.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp
Latest book event: Adolfo Vallejo UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $840 → $119 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Adolfo Vallejo; negative values favor Gael Monfils. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGael Monfils · $65.0K
6hGael Monfils · $31.3K
24hGael Monfils · $28.8K

Adolfo Vallejo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Adolfo Vallejo price. Gael Monfils fills are converted to the complementary Adolfo Vallejo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h39.1¢▼ below by 38.6pp
VWAP 7d39.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Adolfo Vallejo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$30.1K
75¢
$18.3K
70¢
$465
65¢
$8.1K
60¢
$13.7K
55¢
$37.1K
50¢
$56.7K
45¢
$6.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$10.1K
30¢
$8.0K
25¢
$446
20¢
$29.4K
15¢
$2.3K
10¢
$15.3K
5¢
$33
0¢
← now
$79.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYGael Monfils$44.0K@ 99.9¢
0xAlikz0x2037…473d
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLGael Monfils$10.7K@ 78.0¢
unknownloser10x5c50…e0c9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYGael Monfils$15.0K@ 49.6¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAdolfo Vallejo$10.6K@ 52.0¢0xf3a1…bf4b🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAdolfo Vallejo$15.6K@ 80.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAdolfo Vallejo$14.0K@ 58.0¢0xd104…710b🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xAlikzGael Monfils$51.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·2 fills
0F62Adolfo Vallejo$27.6K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·4 fills
0xd104…710bAdolfo Vallejo$16.8K
BUY VWAP 57.8¢·3 fills
hurricanGael Monfils$16.1K
BUY VWAP 81.9¢·2 fills
0x760f…326aGael Monfils$15.0K
BUY VWAP 49.6¢·1 fill
alexdave888Gael Monfils$11.6K
BUY VWAP 48.5¢·2 fills
0xf3a1…bf4bAdolfo Vallejo$10.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.