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San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $230.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $327.6KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
0.1¢
San Diego Padres
100.0¢
Cincinnati Reds
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:93 trades$132.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cincinnati Reds · $105 net·7 wallets·$15.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres$52.0K@ 61¢·Sunny24

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Cincinnati Reds pressure: $5.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.1K
6h
+$35.0K
tracked
$132.6K

7 verified profitable wallets: Cincinnati Reds · $105 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -60.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cincinnati Reds or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-09 16:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for September 2 at 12:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $52.4K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $5.4K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $4.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY San Diego Padres3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 61.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +16.0pp1h INVALIDATED -18.0pp
Latest book event: San Diego Padres DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $96 → $54 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor San Diego Padres; negative values favor Cincinnati Reds. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCincinnati Reds · $5.1K
6hSan Diego Padres · $35.0K
24hSan Diego Padres · $39.5K

San Diego Padres price VWAP

Volume-weighted San Diego Padres price. Cincinnati Reds fills are converted to the complementary San Diego Padres probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h53.5¢▼ below by 53.4pp
VWAP 7d53.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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San Diego Padres price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.3K
80¢
$1.4K
75¢
$1.3K
70¢
$15
65¢
$0
60¢
$58.6K
55¢
$18.1K
50¢
$9.3K
45¢
$25.1K
40¢
$8.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$2.6K
25¢
$3
20¢
$1.4K
15¢
$442
10¢
$165
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$4.3K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCincinnati Reds$10.6K@ 53.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$52.0K@ 61.0¢
Sunny240x2089…712e
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sunny24San Diego Padres$52.0K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
FeromontCincinnati Reds$16.0K
BUY VWAP 53.3¢·2 fills
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rCincinnati Reds$11.3K
BUY VWAP 42.8¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.