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US Open ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Yunchaokete Bu

● quote 15s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $35.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $182.6KEvent: US Open ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Yunchaokete Bu
89.5¢
Rafael Jodar
10.5¢
Yunchaokete Bu
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution81Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:38 trades$127.9K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 70%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 292 min agoofficial metadata 29s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRafael Jodar$23.6K@ 90¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$539
tracked
$127.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Rafael Jodar · $94.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 292 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-08 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Yunchaokete Bu in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Yunchaokete Bu. This market will resolve to 'Yunchaokete Bu' if Yunchaokete Bu advances against Rafael Jodar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Rafael Jodar@ 92.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Rafael Jodar@ 92.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Rafael Jodar@ 91.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Rafael Jodar@ 91.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Rafael Jodar; negative values favor Yunchaokete Bu. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRafael Jodar · $0
6hRafael Jodar · $539
24hRafael Jodar · $119.9K

Rafael Jodar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Rafael Jodar price. Yunchaokete Bu fills are converted to the complementary Rafael Jodar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.5¢
VWAP 24h90.8¢▼ below by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d90.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Rafael Jodar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$119.8K
85¢
← now
$8.1K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRafael Jodar$12.6K@ 92.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar$21.4K@ 91.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar$23.6K@ 90.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar$13.1K@ 91.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Rafael Jodar$94.3K
BUY VWAP 90.8¢·11 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.