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US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Camila Osorio

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $255.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $207.0KEvent: US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Camila Osorio
99.1¢
Aryna Sabalenka
0.9¢
Camila Osorio
1.4¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection68Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 98%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:30 trades$191.3K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 92%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aryna Sabalenka · $133.0K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$133.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAryna Sabalenka$18.4K@ 98¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Aryna Sabalenka pressure: $130.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$130.6K
6h
+$185.8K
tracked
$191.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: Aryna Sabalenka · $133.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.4¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 98% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Aryna Sabalenka or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Camila Osorio in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Camila Osorio. This market will resolve to 'Camila Osorio' if Camila Osorio advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Aryna Sabalenka@ 94.8¢8m ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Aryna Sabalenka@ 98.6¢39m ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.4pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Aryna Sabalenka@ 96.8¢50m ago
15m STALLED +0.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aryna Sabalenka@ 96.7¢59m ago
15m STALLED +0.5pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aryna Sabalenka; negative values favor Camila Osorio. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAryna Sabalenka · $130.6K
6hAryna Sabalenka · $185.8K
24hAryna Sabalenka · $191.3K

Aryna Sabalenka price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aryna Sabalenka price. Camila Osorio fills are converted to the complementary Aryna Sabalenka probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.1¢
VWAP 24h97.1¢▲ above by 2.0pp
VWAP 7d97.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aryna Sabalenka price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$185.8K
90¢
$5.5K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAryna Sabalenka$13.7K@ 98.8¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—38 minutes ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka$18.4K@ 97.8¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—41 minutes ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka$18.1K@ 97.7¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—41 minutes ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka$13.6K@ 97.7¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—41 minutes ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka$10.5K@ 96.9¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka$17.9K@ 95.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Aryna Sabalenka$121.7K
BUY VWAP 97.1¢·11 fills
backbackAryna Sabalenka$17.6K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·2 fills
hd777Aryna Sabalenka$13.7K
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.