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US Open ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan-Lennard Struff

● quote 37s ago
Sports→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $193.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $81.6KEvent: US Open ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan-Lennard Struff
34.5¢
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
65.5¢
Jan-Lennard Struff
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets43Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$33.3K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 70 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jan-Lennard Struff · $9.3K net·2 wallets·$14.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJan-Lennard Struff$12.3K@ 64¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$20.1K
tracked
$33.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: Jan-Lennard Struff · $9.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 70 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jan-Lennard Struff in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Jan-Lennard Struff. This market will resolve to 'Jan-Lennard Struff' if Jan-Lennard Struff advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Camilo Ugo Carabelli; negative values favor Jan-Lennard Struff. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCamilo Ugo Carabelli · $0
6hJan-Lennard Struff · $20.1K
24hJan-Lennard Struff · $25.8K

Camilo Ugo Carabelli price VWAP

Volume-weighted Camilo Ugo Carabelli price. Jan-Lennard Struff fills are converted to the complementary Camilo Ugo Carabelli probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h35.5¢▼ below by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d35.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Camilo Ugo Carabelli price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$27.4K
30¢
← now
$6.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJan-Lennard Struff$12.3K@ 64.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaJan-Lennard Struff$12.3K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.