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US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth

● quote 21s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $340.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $779.3KEvent: US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth
0.1¢
Matteo Arnaldi
100.0¢
James Duckworth
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:164 trades$347.0K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Matteo Arnaldi · $95.8K net·16 wallets(3🐋)·$143.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMatteo Arnaldi$65.0K@ 60¢·11vsldfdsgfkjgos

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Matteo Arnaldi pressure: $44.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$44.9K
6h
+$189.9K
tracked
$347.0K

16 verified profitable wallets: Matteo Arnaldi · $95.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -56.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Matteo Arnaldi or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and James Duckworth in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against James Duckworth. This market will resolve to 'James Duckworth' if James Duckworth advances against Matteo Arnaldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Matteo Arnaldi@ 57.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -14.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Matteo Arnaldi@ 57.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -14.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Matteo Arnaldi@ 60.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -22.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Matteo Arnaldi@ 59.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp
Latest book event: James Duckworth UP 7.5pp · near-book depth $332 → $31 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matteo Arnaldi; negative values favor James Duckworth. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatteo Arnaldi · $44.9K
6hMatteo Arnaldi · $189.9K
24hMatteo Arnaldi · $192.3K

Matteo Arnaldi price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matteo Arnaldi price. James Duckworth fills are converted to the complementary Matteo Arnaldi probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h47.2¢▼ below by 47.1pp
VWAP 7d47.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Matteo Arnaldi price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$7.1K
75¢
$7.8K
70¢
$5.2K
65¢
$30
60¢
$12.2K
55¢
$178.2K
50¢
$14.2K
45¢
$19.4K
40¢
$5.3K
35¢
$8.5K
30¢
$41.1K
25¢
$3.6K
20¢
$1.4K
15¢
$4
10¢
$0
5¢
$43
0¢
← now
$44.1K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLJames Duckworth$20.0K@ 99.9¢
alexdave8880xa4fd…748b
🐋—20 minutes ago
BUYMatteo Arnaldi$10.9K@ 52.0¢
IQdegen0x088b…21cc
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYJames Duckworth$10.8K@ 54.0¢
alexdave8880xa4fd…748b
🐋—33 minutes ago
BUYMatteo Arnaldi$11.3K@ 58.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMatteo Arnaldi$11.5K@ 59.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMatteo Arnaldi$65.0K@ 59.8¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMatteo Arnaldi$50.0K@ 57.9¢
ssj30x1a95…3a16
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLJames Duckworth$13.5K@ 70.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

11vsldfdsgfkjgosMatteo Arnaldi$65.0K
BUY VWAP 59.8¢·1 fill
ssj3Matteo Arnaldi$50.0K
BUY VWAP 57.9¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Matteo Arnaldi$39.3K
BUY VWAP 58.7¢·4 fills
IQdegenMatteo Arnaldi$20.1K
BUY VWAP 41.8¢·2 fills
alexdave888James Duckworth$10.8K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.