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Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $569.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $261.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A
0.1¢
M80
100.0¢
Aurora Gaming
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection36Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets87Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:92 trades$106.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $43.4K net·11 wallets·$49.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$13.7K@ 100¢·0x3fcc…9f91

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Aurora Gaming pressure: $36.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$36.9K
6h
−$62.2K
tracked
$106.6K

11 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $43.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Aurora Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 18:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win Map 2 against Aurora Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 2 against M80.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between M80 and Aurora Gaming in the BLAST Open Porto Group A, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win Map 2 against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 2 against M80. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd570…e4f82 linked markets · $146.2K gross
0x29b5…cc6c3 linked markets · $59.2K gross
backback3 linked markets · $40.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Aurora Gaming UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $9.9K → $11.8K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor M80; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAurora Gaming · $36.9K
6hAurora Gaming · $62.2K
24hAurora Gaming · $80.9K

M80 price VWAP

Volume-weighted M80 price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary M80 probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h17.0¢▼ below by 16.9pp
VWAP 7d17.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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M80 price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$227
30¢
$40.6K
25¢
$4.6K
20¢
$1.6K
15¢
$1.3K
10¢
$9.6K
5¢
$9.6K
0¢
← now
$39.1K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$13.7K@ 99.8¢0x3fcc…9f91🐋—29 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3fcc…9f91Aurora Gaming$13.7K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·1 fill
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fAurora Gaming$10.5K
BUY VWAP 85.9¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.