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Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5)

● quote 21s ago
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $695Official 24h Vol: $180.7KEvent: Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A
92.0¢
Aurora Gaming
8.0¢
M80
16.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution2Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:41 trades$65.2K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 47 min agoofficial metadata 58s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $35.3K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$35.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$11.5K@ 46¢·0xd570…e4f8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$10
6h
+$33.2K
tracked
$65.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $35.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
16.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 47 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 16.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 18:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than M80 in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "M80".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between M80 and Aurora Gaming in the BLAST Open Porto Group A, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than M80 in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "M80". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd570…e4f82 linked markets · $146.2K gross
0x29b5…cc6c3 linked markets · $59.2K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $15.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Aurora Gaming UP 10.0pp · near-book depth $34 → $26 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor M80. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAurora Gaming · $10
6hAurora Gaming · $33.2K
24hAurora Gaming · $47.2K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. M80 fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current92.0¢
VWAP 24h45.8¢▲ above by 46.3pp
VWAP 7d45.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$10
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$65.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$11.4K@ 46.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora Gaming$11.5K@ 46.0¢0xd570…e4f8🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xd570…e4f8Aurora Gaming$17.0K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·2 fills
0x29b5…cc6cAurora Gaming$16.8K
BUY VWAP 45.5¢·10 fills
0x2c33…0563Aurora Gaming$11.4K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.