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Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card)

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $397.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $409.1KEvent: Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card)
49.5¢
Brandon Moreno payout
50.5¢
Joseph Morales payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Brandon Moreno · $13.3K net·12 wallets·$21.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBrandon Moreno$26.5K@ 53¢·surfandturf

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-13 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Brandon Moreno" if Brandon Moreno is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joseph Morales at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Joseph Morales" if Joseph Morales is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Brandon Moreno" if Brandon Moreno is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joseph Morales at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Joseph Morales" if Joseph Morales is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 7d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 7d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Brandon Moreno7d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Brandon Moreno7d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Brandon Moreno@ 53.0¢7d ago
15m CONFIRMED +39.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Brandon Moreno@ 53.0¢7d ago
15m CONFIRMED +39.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Brandon Moreno; negative values favor Joseph Morales. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBrandon Moreno · $34.6K
6hBrandon Moreno · $25.7K
24hBrandon Moreno · $24.1K

Brandon Moreno price VWAP

Volume-weighted Brandon Moreno price. Joseph Morales fills are converted to the complementary Brandon Moreno probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h66.4¢▼ below by 16.9pp
VWAP 7d65.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Brandon Moreno price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$39.9K
90¢
$5.0K
85¢
$2.1K
80¢
$35
75¢
$3.5K
70¢
$629
65¢
$2.3K
60¢
$74
55¢
$1.5K
50¢
$84.6K
45¢
← now
$26.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLBrandon Moreno$10.3K@ 99.9¢
0xwise0x0e60…3bad
🐋—7 days ago
BUYBrandon Moreno$15.0K@ 53.8¢0x17c4…2471🐋—7 days ago
BUYBrandon Moreno$26.5K@ 53.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—7 days ago
BUYJoseph Morales$11.0K@ 51.0¢
madkkee0xd27c…c081
🐋—7 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

surfandturfBrandon Moreno$32.7K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·2 fills
0x17c4…2471Brandon Moreno$15.0K
BUY VWAP 53.8¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Brandon Moreno$11.9K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills
madkkeeJoseph Morales$11.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.