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Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $73.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $12.9KEvent: Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - More Markets
57.5¢
Over
42.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$21.4K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $18.6K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$18.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$15.3K@ 56¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$993
6h
+$582
tracked
$21.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Over · $18.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 25 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-12 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if Real Madrid CF and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid combine to score 4 or more goals in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming La Liga game between Real Madrid CF and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, scheduled for September 12 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Real Madrid CF and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0F622 linked markets · $589.4K gross
0xa0f9…dc6f2 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $993
6hOver · $582
24hOver · $20.5K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.5¢
VWAP 24h56.1¢▲ above by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d56.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$21.4K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$15.3K@ 56.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Over$15.3K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.