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US Open ATP: Valentin Vacherot vs Kamil Majchrzak

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $113.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $435.0KEvent: US Open ATP: Valentin Vacherot vs Kamil Majchrzak
78.5¢
Valentin Vacherot
21.5¢
Kamil Majchrzak
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:65 trades$201.8K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kamil Majchrzak · $14.3K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$29.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKamil Majchrzak$48.1K@ 47¢·Gourmet1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Valentin Vacherot SETUP
What the tape says

Valentin Vacherot pressure: $10.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.4K
6h
−$78.7K
tracked
$201.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: Kamil Majchrzak · $14.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 56

Since latest liquidity absorption: -25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Valentin Vacherot or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-08 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Vacherot and Kamil Majchrzak in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Vacherot' if Valentin Vacherot advances against Kamil Majchrzak. This market will resolve to 'Kamil Majchrzak' if Kamil Majchrzak advances against Valentin Vacherot. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Kamil Majchrzak@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Kamil Majchrzak@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Kamil Majchrzak@ 45.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -26.0pp
Latest book event: Kamil Majchrzak DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.2K → $215 · 33s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valentin Vacherot; negative values favor Kamil Majchrzak. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hValentin Vacherot · $10.4K
6hKamil Majchrzak · $78.7K
24hKamil Majchrzak · $113.1K

Valentin Vacherot price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valentin Vacherot price. Kamil Majchrzak fills are converted to the complementary Valentin Vacherot probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current78.5¢
VWAP 24h55.5¢▲ above by 23.0pp
VWAP 7d55.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valentin Vacherot price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.2K
75¢
← now
$6.7K
70¢
$1.6K
65¢
$192
60¢
$0
55¢
$85.2K
50¢
$105.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKamil Majchrzak$17.0K@ 47.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKamil Majchrzak$48.1K@ 47.0¢
Gourmet10xc430…1ebf
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKamil Majchrzak$35.8K@ 46.9¢
Gourmet10xc430…1ebf
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKamil Majchrzak$46.1K@ 44.0¢
123abc0xc58d…9373
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYValentin Vacherot$10.1K@ 55.0¢
fastball670x45e4…7e20
🐋—about 15 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Gourmet1Kamil Majchrzak$83.9K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·2 fills
123abcKamil Majchrzak$46.1K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill
BrotherObamaKamil Majchrzak$17.0K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
0xf0e9…1a15Valentin Vacherot$13.8K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·2 fills
fastball67Valentin Vacherot$10.1K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.