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US Open ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrey Rublev

● quote 25s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $37.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.1MEvent: US Open ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrey Rublev
99.9¢
Daniel Merida Aguilar
2.0¢
Andrey Rublev
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets85Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 26 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:402 trades$1.1M tracked3% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 42s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Andrey Rublev · $656.2K net·26 wallets(3🐋)·$770.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAndrey Rublev$188.1K@ 62¢·ripley86alien

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Andrey Rublev pressure: $28.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$28.4K
6h
−$684.6K
tracked
$1.1M

26 verified profitable wallets: Andrey Rublev · $656.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -57.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Andrey Rublev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Andrey Rublev in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Andrey Rublev. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Andrey Rublev@ 58.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Andrey Rublev@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -27.0pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY Andrey Rublev@ 80.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp1h INVALIDATED -33.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Andrey Rublev3h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Andrey Rublev DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $19.6K → $8 · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniel Merida Aguilar; negative values favor Andrey Rublev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAndrey Rublev · $28.4K
6hAndrey Rublev · $684.6K
24hAndrey Rublev · $668.2K

Daniel Merida Aguilar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniel Merida Aguilar price. Andrey Rublev fills are converted to the complementary Daniel Merida Aguilar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h43.9¢▲ above by 56.0pp
VWAP 7d43.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniel Merida Aguilar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$19.4K
90¢
$14.6K
85¢
$11.6K
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.9K
70¢
$3.4K
65¢
$30.5K
60¢
$8.8K
55¢
$8.5K
50¢
$19.3K
45¢
$159.7K
40¢
$124.7K
35¢
$695.3K
30¢
$178
25¢
$0
20¢
$7.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAndrey Rublev$104.0K@ 52.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniel Merida Aguilar$15.9K@ 48.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$31.6K@ 62.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$62.6K@ 62.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$188.1K@ 62.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$28.0K@ 62.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$104.0K@ 61.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$75.1K@ 61.0¢
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff528140x709e…66f5
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYDaniel Merida Aguilar$46.8K@ 39.0¢
jtwyslljy0x9cb9…32f2
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$46.8K@ 62.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$24.4K@ 61.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$13.9K@ 57.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYDaniel Merida Aguilar$20.0K@ 44.1¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ripley86alienAndrey Rublev$542.7K
BUY VWAP 61.7¢·14 fills
0x2c33…0563Andrey Rublev$109.8K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·2 fills
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814Andrey Rublev$79.6K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·2 fills
jtwyslljyDaniel Merida Aguilar$59.8K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·5 fills
0x760f…326aDaniel Merida Aguilar$20.0K
BUY VWAP 44.1¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Daniel Merida Aguilar$19.6K
BUY VWAP 47.2¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026Andrey Rublev$18.2K
BUY VWAP 56.4¢·5 fills
BrotherObamaAndrey Rublev$15.7K
BUY VWAP 54.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.