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US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz

● quote 51s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $32.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $79.2KEvent: US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz
8.5¢
Jaime Faria
91.5¢
Carlos Alcaraz
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$33.6K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$13.0K@ 91¢·Cuco84

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Carlos Alcaraz pressure: $1.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.8K
6h
−$340
tracked
$33.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Jaime Faria · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Carlos Alcaraz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jaime Faria and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jaime Faria' if Jaime Faria advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Jaime Faria. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jaime Faria; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $1.8K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $340
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $30.6K

Jaime Faria price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jaime Faria price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Jaime Faria probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current8.5¢
VWAP 24h9.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d9.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jaime Faria price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$3.1K
5¢
← now
$30.5K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$11.8K@ 91.0¢
Cuco840xf3b0…23a1
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$13.0K@ 91.0¢
Cuco840xf3b0…23a1
🐋—about 22 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Cuco84Carlos Alcaraz$24.8K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.