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Toledo vs. Michigan State: 4Q Moneyline

● quote 44 min ago
Sports→Closes: 3 daysLiquidity: $1.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $76.5KEvent: Toledo vs. Michigan State
34.0¢
Toledo
66.0¢
Michigan State
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution46Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%
24h sample:9 trades$22.0K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 221 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLToledo$6.0K@ 40¢·lukibazdonauki754

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$11.6K
tracked
$22.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 44 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 221 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo outscore Michigan State in the fourth quarter.

•This market will resolve to "Michigan State" if Michigan State outscore Toledo in the fourth quarter.

Read full resolution rules

In the fourth quarter of the college football game between Toledo and Michigan State, scheduled for September 4 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo outscore Michigan State in the fourth quarter. This market will resolve to "Michigan State" if Michigan State outscore Toledo in the fourth quarter. If both teams score the same number of points in the fourth quarter, this market will resolve 50-50. Only points scored during that period count; overtime is not included. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Toledo; negative values favor Michigan State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hToledo · $0
6hMichigan State · $11.6K
24hMichigan State · $1.2K

Toledo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Toledo price. Michigan State fills are converted to the complementary Toledo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.0¢
VWAP 24h33.0¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d33.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Toledo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$6.0K
35¢
$5.6K
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$10.4K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.