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Italy vs. China

● quote 57s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $98.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.6KEvent: Italy vs. China
0.1¢
Italy
100.0¢
China
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$9.4K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 96 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:China · $1.8K net·2 wallets·$1.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLChina$2.9K@ 90¢·Kalahanda

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$5.4K
tracked
$9.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: China · $1.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 96 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-14 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.fiba.basketball/en/events/fiba-womens-basketball-world-cup-2026
Outcome meaning

•If the Italy win, the market will resolve to "Italy".

•If the China win, the market will resolve to "China".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming FIBA Women's World Cup game, scheduled for September 7 at 2:45PM ET: If the Italy win, the market will resolve to "Italy". If the China win, the market will resolve to "China". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Italy; negative values favor China. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hItaly · $0
6hItaly · $5.4K
24hItaly · $5.4K

Italy price VWAP

Volume-weighted Italy price. China fills are converted to the complementary Italy probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h21.2¢▼ below by 21.2pp
VWAP 7d21.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Italy price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.2K
65¢
$1.1K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$74
5¢
$4.8K
0¢
← now
$2.2K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.