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US Open ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $124.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $838.0KEvent: US Open ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov
67.5¢
Felix Auger-Aliassime
32.5¢
Karen Khachanov
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets69Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:108 trades$237.9K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 27s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Felix Auger-Aliassime · $28.4K net·7 wallets·$41.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$16.5K@ 68¢·rabbitfoot1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Felix Auger-Aliassime pressure: $7.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.3K
6h
+$4.4K
tracked
$237.9K

7 verified profitable wallets: Felix Auger-Aliassime · $28.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 35 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Felix Auger-Aliassime or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Karen Khachanov in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Felix Auger-Aliassime' if Felix Auger-Aliassime advances against Karen Khachanov. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Felix Auger-Aliassime. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Karen Khachanov2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Karen Khachanov@ 26.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +3.0pp
Latest book event: Karen Khachanov UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $96 → $18.6K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Felix Auger-Aliassime; negative values favor Karen Khachanov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $7.3K
6hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $4.4K
24hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $21.0K

Felix Auger-Aliassime price VWAP

Volume-weighted Felix Auger-Aliassime price. Karen Khachanov fills are converted to the complementary Felix Auger-Aliassime probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current67.5¢
VWAP 24h74.2¢▼ below by 6.7pp
VWAP 7d74.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Felix Auger-Aliassime price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$37.7K
80¢
$12
75¢
$57.3K
70¢
$70.6K
65¢
← now
$67.8K
60¢
$4.4K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$16.5K@ 68.0¢
rabbitfoot10x10a6…4d8b
🐋—43 minutes ago
BUYKaren Khachanov$12.2K@ 34.0¢
Gourmet10xc430…1ebf
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKaren Khachanov$13.2K@ 31.0¢
Gourmet10xc430…1ebf
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$15.7K@ 86.0¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKaren Khachanov$10.4K@ 22.7¢
Gourmet10xc430…1ebf
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Gourmet1Karen Khachanov$82.5K
BUY VWAP 27.2¢·12 fills
FlaznorpFelix Auger-Aliassime$17.2K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·9 fills
one8tyfiveFelix Auger-Aliassime$16.8K
BUY VWAP 84.7¢·2 fills
rabbitfoot1Felix Auger-Aliassime$16.5K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.