PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Counter-Strike: Iberian Soul vs Nemiga (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

● quote 17s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $129.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $267.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: Iberian Soul vs Nemiga (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
0.1¢
Iberian Soul
100.0¢
Nemiga
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection34Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:83 trades$106.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 38s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nemiga · $28.7K net·4 wallets·$28.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNemiga$20.1K@ 100¢·Iostfd

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Iberian Soul pressure: $36.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$36.2K
6h
+$4.9K
tracked
$106.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: Nemiga · $28.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +42.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 42.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Iberian Soul or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-03 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Iberian Soul" if Iberian Soul win the match against Nemiga.

•This market will resolve to "Nemiga" if Nemiga win the match against Iberian Soul.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between Iberian Soul and Nemiga in the Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Iberian Soul" if Iberian Soul win the match against Nemiga. This market will resolve to "Nemiga" if Nemiga win the match against Iberian Soul. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 17, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 3, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Iostfd3 linked markets · $36.4K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $31.7K gross
RN12 linked markets · $14.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Nemiga@ 58.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Nemiga@ 57.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +34.0pp
Latest book event: Iberian Soul DOWN 5.2pp · near-book depth $10 → $0 · 57s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Iberian Soul; negative values favor Nemiga. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIberian Soul · $36.2K
6hIberian Soul · $4.9K
24hNemiga · $12.3K

Iberian Soul price VWAP

Volume-weighted Iberian Soul price. Nemiga fills are converted to the complementary Iberian Soul probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h25.8¢▼ below by 25.8pp
VWAP 7d25.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Iberian Soul price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$2
75¢
$788
70¢
$329
65¢
$68
60¢
$174
55¢
$4
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.2K
40¢
$51.8K
35¢
$3.4K
30¢
$3.7K
25¢
$79
20¢
$0
15¢
$8
10¢
$5
5¢
$2.4K
0¢
← now
$41.0K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNemiga$20.1K@ 99.9¢
Iostfd0xddc3…029c
🐋—26 minutes ago
SELLNemiga$10.7K@ 99.9¢
aaaa2980x4ebc…a33d
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYNemiga$17.7K@ 56.0¢
ExplosiveNinja0x73e3…1be9
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs
0.1¢$2.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner
0.1¢$1.8Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner
0.1¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner
0.1¢$872.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
100.0¢$823.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$476.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner
100.0¢$454.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x29b5…cc6cNemiga$25.7K
BUY VWAP 57.3¢·7 fills
ExplosiveNinjaNemiga$17.7K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.