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Spread: Bengals (-6.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $40.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $160.9KEvent: Bengals vs. Dolphins
70.5¢
Bengals
29.5¢
Dolphins
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly5Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$71.9K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bengals · $3.1K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$64.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBengals$22.2K@ 54¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$30
6h
−$9.4K
tracked
$71.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: Bengals · $3.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -16.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bengals" if the Bengals win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Bengals and Dolphins, scheduled for October 11 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bengals" if the Bengals win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $92.5K gross
mooseborzoii2 linked markets · $13.6K gross
Bagwell3062 linked markets · $4.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Dolphins@ 47.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp1h INVALIDATED -8.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Bengals@ 54.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Bengals DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $98 → $1.4K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bengals; negative values favor Dolphins. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBengals · $30
6hDolphins · $9.4K
24hDolphins · $9.4K

Bengals price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bengals price. Dolphins fills are converted to the complementary Bengals probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current70.5¢
VWAP 24h53.4¢▲ above by 17.1pp
VWAP 7d53.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bengals price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$10
55¢
$50
50¢
$79.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBengals$22.2K@ 54.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Dolphins$30.7K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·11 fills
ferrariChampions2026Bengals$28.6K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.