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Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)

Sports→Settlement: SE PalmeirasLiquidity: $105.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $186.3KEvent: SE Palmeiras vs. São Paulo FC - More Markets
100.0¢
SE Palmeiras payout
0.0¢
São Paulo FC payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:8 trades$3.9K trackedsource coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1293 min agoofficial metadata 1125 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:São Paulo FC · $40.8K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$40.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSão Paulo FC$22.9K@ 65¢·ferrariChampions2026

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome SE Palmeiras. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-12 21:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "SE Palmeiras" if SE Palmeiras win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "São Paulo FC".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for September 12 at 5:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "SE Palmeiras" if SE Palmeiras win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "São Paulo FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on cbf.com.br. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
OhWhenTheReds2 linked markets · $53.1K gross
Flaznorp2 linked markets · $23.1K gross
GoalLineGhost2 linked markets · $5.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY SE Palmeiras@ 41.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -8.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY São Paulo FC@ 60.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: SE Palmeiras UP 8.0pp · near-book depth $5 → $228 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor SE Palmeiras; negative values favor São Paulo FC. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSE Palmeiras · $0
6hSão Paulo FC · $26.4K
24hSão Paulo FC · $26.4K

SE Palmeiras price VWAP

Volume-weighted SE Palmeiras price. São Paulo FC fills are converted to the complementary SE Palmeiras probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h35.7¢▲ above by 64.3pp
VWAP 7d35.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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SE Palmeiras price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$25
90¢
$75
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$5
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$3.0K
35¢
$59.7K
30¢
$12.8K
25¢
$259
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSão Paulo FC$22.9K@ 65.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—1 day ago
BUYSE Palmeiras$12.8K@ 34.5¢
OhWhenTheReds0x918b…ea63
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026São Paulo FC$28.6K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·2 fills
OhWhenTheRedsSE Palmeiras$21.7K
BUY VWAP 35.5¢·2 fills
FlaznorpSão Paulo FC$12.2K
BUY VWAP 64.9¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.