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Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres

● quote 53s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $192.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $26.4KEvent: Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres
36.5¢
Washington Nationals
63.5¢
San Diego Padres
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:2 trades$28.3K tracked100% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 131 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres$16.5K@ 64¢·ic4cream

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$28.3K
tracked
$28.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 131 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game.

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres, scheduled for September 8 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Washington Nationals; negative values favor San Diego Padres. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWashington Nationals · $0
6hSan Diego Padres · $28.3K
24hSan Diego Padres · $28.3K

Washington Nationals price VWAP

Volume-weighted Washington Nationals price. San Diego Padres fills are converted to the complementary Washington Nationals probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h36.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d36.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Washington Nationals price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$28.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres$16.5K@ 64.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$11.8K@ 64.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ic4creamSan Diego Padres$28.3K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.