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US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $61.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $341.7KEvent: US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez
45.5¢
Jessica Pegula
54.5¢
Leylah Fernandez
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:77 trades$191.2K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jessica Pegula · $82.9K net·9 wallets(3🐋)·$83.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJessica Pegula$40.3K@ 84¢·0b1fe

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Leylah Fernandez SETUP
What the tape says

Leylah Fernandez pressure: $32.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$32.7K
6h
+$16.2K
tracked
$191.2K

9 verified profitable wallets: Jessica Pegula · $82.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 71

Since latest large flow: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Leylah Fernandez or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Leylah Fernandez. This market will resolve to 'Leylah Fernandez' if Leylah Fernandez advances against Jessica Pegula. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Leylah Fernandez@ 51.0¢19m ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Jessica Pegula@ 85.0¢55m ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Jessica Pegula@ 85.0¢55m ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp
Latest book event: Jessica Pegula DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $2.0K → $28.0K · 15s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jessica Pegula; negative values favor Leylah Fernandez. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLeylah Fernandez · $32.7K
6hJessica Pegula · $16.2K
24hJessica Pegula · $37.2K

Jessica Pegula price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jessica Pegula price. Leylah Fernandez fills are converted to the complementary Jessica Pegula probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h66.6¢▼ below by 21.1pp
VWAP 7d66.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jessica Pegula price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$38
80¢
$70.0K
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.6K
65¢
$33.6K
60¢
$3.0K
55¢
$3.7K
50¢
$37.4K
45¢
← now
$38.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$2.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJessica Pegula$12.2K@ 50.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—21 minutes ago
BUYLeylah Fernandez$10.0K@ 52.3¢0x5f65…2036🐋—21 minutes ago
BUYLeylah Fernandez$10.0K@ 33.1¢0x78be…bde0🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYJessica Pegula$10.0K@ 69.8¢
soukaev0x7568…2ce1
🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYJessica Pegula$40.3K@ 84.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJessica Pegula$18.3K@ 84.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0b1feJessica Pegula$43.3K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·2 fills
0x5f65…2036Leylah Fernandez$29.0K
BUY VWAP 51.6¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026Jessica Pegula$18.3K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·1 fill
0x78be…bde0Leylah Fernandez$16.0K
BUY VWAP 32.1¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Jessica Pegula$12.2K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
soukaevJessica Pegula$10.0K
BUY VWAP 69.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.