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US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $74.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $482.1KEvent: US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov
93.5¢
Ben Shelton
6.5¢
Denis Shapovalov
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection28Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:319 trades$250.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 29s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ben Shelton · $35.8K net·11 wallets(3🐋)·$104.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBen Shelton$39.6K@ 87¢·afraz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Ben Shelton SETUP
What the tape says

Ben Shelton pressure: $70.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$70.1K
6h
+$93.2K
tracked
$250.1K

11 verified profitable wallets: Ben Shelton · $35.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: -11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Ben Shelton or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Denis Shapovalov in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Denis Shapovalov. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Ben Shelton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Denis Shapovalov56m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Denis Shapovalov@ 18.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Ben Shelton@ 80.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Ben Shelton@ 80.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: Ben Shelton UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $48.2K → $20.6K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ben Shelton; negative values favor Denis Shapovalov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBen Shelton · $70.1K
6hBen Shelton · $93.2K
24hBen Shelton · $126.9K

Ben Shelton price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ben Shelton price. Denis Shapovalov fills are converted to the complementary Ben Shelton probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current93.5¢
VWAP 24h79.0¢▲ above by 14.5pp
VWAP 7d79.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ben Shelton price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$2.2K
85¢
$62.7K
80¢
$33.5K
75¢
$113.6K
70¢
$8.8K
65¢
$23.7K
60¢
$5.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBen Shelton$13.9K@ 88.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—7 minutes ago
BUYBen Shelton$39.6K@ 87.4¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—11 minutes ago
BUYDenis Shapovalov$10.0K@ 34.3¢
soukaev0x7568…2ce1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDenis Shapovalov$25.3K@ 20.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYBen Shelton$15.8K@ 79.0¢
degenfren0x979f…4032
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$19.1K@ 78.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$19.7K@ 77.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 15 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

afrazBen Shelton$48.3K
BUY VWAP 82.6¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Denis Shapovalov$26.2K
BUY VWAP 20.0¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cBen Shelton$21.3K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Ben Shelton$19.7K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
0b1feBen Shelton$18.6K
BUY VWAP 85.8¢·2 fills
degenfrenBen Shelton$15.8K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·1 fill
soukaevDenis Shapovalov$10.0K
BUY VWAP 34.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.