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Islanders vs. Maple Leafs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $109.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $236.2KEvent: Islanders vs. Maple Leafs
13.5¢
Islanders
86.5¢
Maple Leafs
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution81Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:40 trades$100.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Maple Leafs · $4.6K net·3 wallets·$4.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMaple Leafs$67.4K@ 55¢·Elenes

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Maple Leafs pressure: $3.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.3K
6h
−$79.5K
tracked
$100.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: Maple Leafs · $4.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 64

Since latest large flow: +31.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 25 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 31.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Maple Leafs or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-30 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If the Islanders win, the market will resolve to "Islanders".

•If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for September 30 at 7:30PM ET: If the Islanders win, the market will resolve to "Islanders". If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Maple Leafs@ 56.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Islanders DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $254 → $430 · 28s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Islanders; negative values favor Maple Leafs. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMaple Leafs · $3.3K
6hMaple Leafs · $79.5K
24hMaple Leafs · $74.7K

Islanders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Islanders price. Maple Leafs fills are converted to the complementary Islanders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current13.5¢
VWAP 24h44.6¢▼ below by 31.1pp
VWAP 7d44.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Islanders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$88.6K
40¢
$10.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$323
25¢
$55
20¢
$0
15¢
$773
10¢
← now
$31
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMaple Leafs$67.4K@ 55.0¢
Elenes0x29b1…f737
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ElenesMaple Leafs$72.0K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.