PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

● quote 422 min ago
Politics→Geopolitics→ElectionsCloses: 29 daysLiquidity: $25.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $5.9KEvent: Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

Indicative prices · 422 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

95.9¢
YES
4.1¢
NO
1.8¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$2.2K trackedsource coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 781 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $2 net·2 wallets·$5 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$6.5K@ 97¢·0xc3db…0f98

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$2.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: YES · $2 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.8¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 422 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 781 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-30 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page
Read full resolution rules

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $2.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current95.9¢
VWAP 24h96.63¢▼ below by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d94.69¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$21.6K
90¢
$4.0K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
94.5¢$1.7Mpriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
28.5¢$1.5Mpriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
31.5¢$1.2Mpriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
25.5¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
5.5¢$1.0Mpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
71.5¢$876.1Kpriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
72.5¢$874.9Kpriority38Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
79.5¢$797.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xc3db…0f98Yes$12.0K
BUY VWAP 97.71¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.