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UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 12 hoursLiquidity: $137.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $102.7KEvent: UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)
42.5¢
Alexandre Pantoja
57.5¢
Joshua Van
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%
24h sample:19 trades$36.9K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJoshua Van$23.1K@ 58¢·hanbetscap

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alexandre Pantoja pressure: $3.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.7K
6h
+$3.5K
tracked
$36.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • •Less than 12h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alexandre Pantoja or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Alexandre Pantoja" if Alexandre Pantoja is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joshua Van at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Joshua Van" if Joshua Van is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Alexandre Pantoja" if Alexandre Pantoja is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joshua Van at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026. It will resolve to "Joshua Van" if Joshua Van is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Joshua Van@ 58.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexandre Pantoja; negative values favor Joshua Van. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlexandre Pantoja · $3.7K
6hAlexandre Pantoja · $3.5K
24hJoshua Van · $24.1K

Alexandre Pantoja price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexandre Pantoja price. Joshua Van fills are converted to the complementary Alexandre Pantoja probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h42.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d42.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexandre Pantoja price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$6.6K
40¢
← now
$40.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJoshua Van$23.1K@ 58.5¢
hanbetscap0xbddd…3d9a
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hanbetscapJoshua Van$23.1K
BUY VWAP 58.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.