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UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)

● quote 21s ago
Sports→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $45.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $5.7KEvent: UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)
73.5¢
Arman Tsarukyan
26.5¢
Mauricio Ruffy
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$193 trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 268 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArman Tsarukyan$15.0K@ 74¢·marketmesh

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$2
tracked
$193

1 verified profitable wallet: Mauricio Ruffy · $21 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 268 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arman Tsarukyan" if Arman Tsarukyan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Mauricio Ruffy" if Mauricio Ruffy is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Arman Tsarukyan" if Arman Tsarukyan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026. It will resolve to "Mauricio Ruffy" if Mauricio Ruffy is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arman Tsarukyan; negative values favor Mauricio Ruffy. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArman Tsarukyan · $0
6hMauricio Ruffy · $2
24hArman Tsarukyan · $111

Arman Tsarukyan price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arman Tsarukyan price. Mauricio Ruffy fills are converted to the complementary Arman Tsarukyan probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current73.5¢
VWAP 24h73.8¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d74.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arman Tsarukyan price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$3.1K
70¢
← now
$15.8K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArman Tsarukyan$15.0K@ 74.1¢
marketmesh0xb7ab…a2d1
🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

marketmeshArman Tsarukyan$15.0K
BUY VWAP 74.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.