PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $79.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $434.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
32.5¢
Natus Vincere
67.5¢
Aurora Gaming
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection38Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets74Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:124 trades$173.6K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 14s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $37.4K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$50.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$30.6K@ 54¢·Rusik7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Natus Vincere SETUP
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $65.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$65.8K
6h
+$64.4K
tracked
$173.6K

7 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $37.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 71

Since latest large flow: -22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-17 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Aurora Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between Natus Vincere and Aurora Gaming in the StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $46.6K gross
0xbbf3…aa3a2 linked markets · $7.0K gross
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $2.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 55.0¢54m ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 55.0¢54m ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $65.8K
6hNatus Vincere · $64.4K
24hNatus Vincere · $59.7K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current32.5¢
VWAP 24h53.9¢▼ below by 21.4pp
VWAP 7d53.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$190
60¢
$6.6K
55¢
$41.7K
50¢
$133.9K
45¢
$2.2K
40¢
$1.6K
35¢
$1.8K
30¢
← now
$1.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$13.1K@ 46.8¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$12.5K@ 55.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$18.0K@ 54.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$30.6K@ 54.0¢
Rusik70xa6a0…4469
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$10.0K@ 55.4¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 17 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner
1.7¢$137.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-17?
88.5¢$761.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?
63.5¢$672.8Kpriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Caldas da Rainha: Francisca Jorge vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva
43.5¢$463.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$429.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valencia: Guiomar Maristany vs Marina Bassols Ribera
73.5¢$392.9Kpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Natus Vincere$40.5K
BUY VWAP 54.2¢·4 fills
Rusik7Natus Vincere$30.6K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
CORGI8Aurora Gaming$13.1K
BUY VWAP 46.8¢·1 fill
skyman44Natus Vincere$11.1K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·2 fills
0xf559…f462Natus Vincere$10.0K
BUY VWAP 55.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.