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Tulln: Thiago Monteiro vs Max Hans Rehberg

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $458.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $501.7KEvent: Tulln: Thiago Monteiro vs Max Hans Rehberg
100.0¢
Thiago Monteiro
0.1¢
Max Hans Rehberg
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets31Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:109 trades$217.1K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Max Hans Rehberg · $13.2K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$42.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLThiago Monteiro$23.5K@ 100¢·Antblack

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Max Hans Rehberg pressure: $67.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$67.2K
6h
−$45.1K
tracked
$217.1K

7 verified profitable wallets: Max Hans Rehberg · $13.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -77.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Max Hans Rehberg or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-14 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Monteiro and Max Hans Rehberg in the Tulln, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Monteiro' if Thiago Monteiro advances against Max Hans Rehberg. This market will resolve to 'Max Hans Rehberg' if Max Hans Rehberg advances against Thiago Monteiro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Max Hans Rehberg@ 78.0¢55m ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Thiago Monteiro@ 41.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -23.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Thiago Monteiro@ 41.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -23.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp
Latest book event: Max Hans Rehberg DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $2 → $65 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thiago Monteiro; negative values favor Max Hans Rehberg. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMax Hans Rehberg · $67.2K
6hMax Hans Rehberg · $45.1K
24hMax Hans Rehberg · $45.1K

Thiago Monteiro price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thiago Monteiro price. Max Hans Rehberg fills are converted to the complementary Thiago Monteiro probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h51.5¢▲ above by 48.4pp
VWAP 7d51.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Thiago Monteiro price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$55.7K
90¢
$6.1K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.3K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$6.2K
45¢
$9.2K
40¢
$48.9K
35¢
$40.4K
30¢
$3.0K
25¢
$5.0K
20¢
$5.2K
15¢
$2.5K
10¢
$14.1K
5¢
$19.3K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLThiago Monteiro$12.7K@ 99.9¢
12341620x45e4…3c69
🐋—6 minutes ago
SELLThiago Monteiro$23.5K@ 99.9¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYMax Hans Rehberg$10.9K@ 91.8¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$10.0K@ 42.5¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLThiago Monteiro$10.1K@ 41.9¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$10.0K@ 38.7¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$10.0K@ 38.7¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AntblackThiago Monteiro$27.0K
BUY VWAP 40.7¢·3 fills
FlaznorpMax Hans Rehberg$18.1K
BUY VWAP 88.7¢·4 fills
0x78be…bde0Thiago Monteiro$17.0K
BUY VWAP 38.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.