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Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 18 minutesLiquidity: $6.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $369.7KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
43.0¢
Over
57.0¢
Under
8.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution21Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:56 trades$176.8K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $4.2K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$34.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$35.0K@ 54¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Under pressure: $7.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.0K
6h
−$110.9K
tracked
$176.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: Under · $4.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
8.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 8.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-07 17:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles combine to score 8 or more runs in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for September 7 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles combine to score 8 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ic4cream2 linked markets · $13.4K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $8.9K gross
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $8.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Under@ 54.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 54.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Under@ 52.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: Over DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $558 → $11.8K · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $7.0K
6hUnder · $110.9K
24hUnder · $112.1K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.0¢
VWAP 24h48.2¢▼ below by 5.2pp
VWAP 7d48.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$54.0K
45¢
$118.0K
40¢
← now
$4.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$35.0K@ 54.4¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYUnder$19.2K@ 52.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYUnder$11.4K@ 52.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYOver$14.3K@ 49.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYUnder$18.0K@ 51.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYUnder$22.6K@ 50.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYOver$10.0K@ 51.0¢
SemyonMarmeladov0x37e4…c991
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYUnder$15.5K@ 49.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Under$58.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·4 fills
BrotherObamaUnder$35.0K
BUY VWAP 54.4¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Under$19.2K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Over$14.3K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
ic4creamUnder$11.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
SemyonMarmeladovOver$10.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.