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US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen

Sports→TennisSettlement: Frances TiafoeLiquidity: $301.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $6.6MEvent: US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
100.0¢
Frances Tiafoe payout
0.0¢
Alex Michelsen payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Frances Tiafoe. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-15 15:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Frances Tiafoe and Alex Michelsen in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Frances Tiafoe. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Alex Michelsen@ 47.0¢47d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Frances Tiafoe47d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Frances Tiafoe47d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Frances Tiafoe47d ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Frances Tiafoe; negative values favor Alex Michelsen. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Michelsen · $435.4K
6hAlex Michelsen · $173.8K
24hAlex Michelsen · $387.0K

Frances Tiafoe price VWAP

Volume-weighted Frances Tiafoe price. Alex Michelsen fills are converted to the complementary Frances Tiafoe probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h57.63¢▲ above by 42.4pp
VWAP 7d57.63¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFrances Tiafoe$251.5K@ 99.9¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe$18.7K@ 99.9¢
GeorgeBrian0x6fd2…caec
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe$48.3K@ 99.9¢
devilbanker0xef1b…8697
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe$12.5K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe$11.9K@ 99.9¢
Israel260x87b1…7da1
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$18.5K@ 53.52¢
Netrol0x23c8…f293
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$10.1K@ 50.3¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$10.1K@ 50.3¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$53.6K@ 50.3¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$27.0K@ 50.3¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$25.5K@ 50.3¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$12.9K@ 50.3¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$26.0K@ 50.3¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$11.7K@ 60.14¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$69.0K@ 44.74¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$30.0K@ 59.54¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe$10.0K@ 57.99¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe$10.1K@ 58.54¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$13.9K@ 62.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$11.6K@ 61.9¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe$20.4K@ 59.08¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$14.0K@ 95.0¢
Djnjk0xf400…2f56
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$26.7K@ 85.0¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLAlex Michelsen$13.0K@ 63.59¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$10.0K@ 48.74¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$10.6K@ 52.76¢
devilbanker0xef1b…8697
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$10.0K@ 56.26¢
HectorHuang0x568a…04d9
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$10.0K@ 45.35¢
Runemup0x75f2…ff6d
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$11.8K@ 45.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$12.4K@ 43.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$10.7K@ 43.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$11.6K@ 58.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$11.8K@ 59.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$21.0K@ 45.66¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$23.0K@ 44.05¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$10.0K@ 69.0¢
177-letsgo0x7a75…d288
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$15.9K@ 70.73¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$14.0K@ 60.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$20.2K@ 43.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$58.0K@ 58.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$11.1K@ 42.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$16.8K@ 42.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$30.0K@ 59.0¢
omomom30x0a53…077b
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$18.7K@ 42.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$12.0K@ 59.0¢
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff528140x709e…66f5
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$88.4K@ 58.0¢
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff528140x709e…66f5
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$16.6K@ 42.0¢
bettingbettor0x6bfb…02c9
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$18.7K@ 42.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$65.3K@ 42.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$204.7K@ 41.88¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.