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Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 21 hoursLiquidity: $200.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $155.1KEvent: Manchester City FC vs. Sunderland AFC - More Markets
48.5¢
Manchester City FC
51.5¢
Sunderland AFC
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$74.1K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 107 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSunderland AFC$18.6K@ 52¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$74.1K
tracked
$74.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: Sunderland AFC · $74.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 17 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 107 minutes old.
  • •Less than 21h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Manchester City FC" if Manchester City FC win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sunderland AFC".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for September 20 at 9:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Manchester City FC" if Manchester City FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sunderland AFC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on premierleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Sunderland AFC@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Sunderland AFC@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Sunderland AFC@ 51.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Manchester City FC; negative values favor Sunderland AFC. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hManchester City FC · $0
6hSunderland AFC · $74.1K
24hSunderland AFC · $74.1K

Manchester City FC price VWAP

Volume-weighted Manchester City FC price. Sunderland AFC fills are converted to the complementary Manchester City FC probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h48.7¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d48.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Manchester City FC price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$14.6K
45¢
← now
$59.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSunderland AFC$16.8K@ 52.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSunderland AFC$18.6K@ 52.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSunderland AFC$16.8K@ 51.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cSunderland AFC$74.1K
BUY VWAP 51.3¢·17 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.