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Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?

● quote 16s ago
Sports→Closes: 17 daysLiquidity: $99.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $95.3KEvent: ESL Pro League Season 24: Winner
43.5¢
YES
56.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly97Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$36.2K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.1K net·2 wallets·$1.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$11.9K@ 43¢·skyman44

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.1K
6h
+$13.0K
tracked
$36.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.hltv.org/events/8244/esl-pro-league-season-24
Outcome meaning

•If this tournament is postponed after October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of ESL Pro League Season 24, currently scheduled for October 3, 2026 to October 11, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be HLTV (https://www.hltv.org/events/8244/esl-pro-league-season-24); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $1.1K
6hYES · $13.0K
24hYES · $21.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h42.4¢▲ above by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d41.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$36.2K
35¢
$2.1K
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$11.9K@ 43.0¢
skyman440x30c7…ac3b
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

skyman44Yes$19.5K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.