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Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $19.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $193.3KEvent: US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton
32.5¢
Shelton
67.5¢
Tiafoe
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets62Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution62Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$82.7K tracked12% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tiafoe · $54.0K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$58.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTiafoe$53.4K@ 45¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Tiafoe pressure: $2.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.9K
6h
−$30.0K
tracked
$82.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: Tiafoe · $54.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 51

Since latest large flow: +24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 24.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tiafoe or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Shelton" if Ben Shelton wins by 2 or more sets than Frances Tiafoe, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Tiafoe."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Ben Shelton can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Tiafoe."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shelton" if Ben Shelton wins by 2 or more sets than Frances Tiafoe, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Tiafoe." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Ben Shelton can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Tiafoe." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $132.9K gross
0xf12f…b30f3 linked markets · $7.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Tiafoe@ 45.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Tiafoe UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $123 → $54 · 45s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Shelton; negative values favor Tiafoe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTiafoe · $2.9K
6hTiafoe · $30.0K
24hTiafoe · $30.0K

Shelton price VWAP

Volume-weighted Shelton price. Tiafoe fills are converted to the complementary Shelton probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current32.5¢
VWAP 24h55.2¢▼ below by 22.7pp
VWAP 7d55.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Shelton price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$79.8K
50¢
$2.9K
45¢
$15
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYShelton$10.0K@ 56.0¢0xbbf3…aa3a🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTiafoe$53.4K@ 45.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Tiafoe$53.4K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
0xbbf3…aa3aShelton$10.0K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.