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Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $300.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $288.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
0.1¢
Natus Vincere
99.9¢
Aurora Gaming
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets75Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:108 trades$90.4K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $12.7K net·4 wallets·$17.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAurora Gaming$5.3K@ 100¢·Understandable98

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $6.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.2K
6h
−$4.6K
tracked
$90.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $12.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-17 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 1 against Aurora Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 1 against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between Natus Vincere and Aurora Gaming in the StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 1 against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 1 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1610…ae493 linked markets · $119.5K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $26.9K gross
0x076d…8d4c3 linked markets · $22.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Aurora Gaming UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.3K → $1.0K · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $6.2K
6hAurora Gaming · $4.6K
24hAurora Gaming · $4.6K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h20.8¢▼ below by 20.7pp
VWAP 7d20.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.5K
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$1.7K
55¢
$1.2K
50¢
$2.1K
45¢
$14.2K
40¢
$246
35¢
$0
30¢
$6.3K
25¢
$7.2K
20¢
$7.4K
15¢
$3.2K
10¢
$3.4K
5¢
$8.1K
0¢
← now
$32.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.