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Guadalajara Open Akron: Elvina Kalieva vs Kayla Day

● quote 29s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $268.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $521.9KEvent: Guadalajara Open Akron: Elvina Kalieva vs Kayla Day
0.1¢
Elvina Kalieva
100.0¢
Kayla Day
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets89Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:149 trades$224.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kayla Day · $61.3K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$68.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLKayla Day$25.6K@ 100¢·Runemup

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Kayla Day pressure: $11.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$11.9K
6h
−$59.5K
tracked
$224.8K

13 verified profitable wallets: Kayla Day · $61.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +43.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 43.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Kayla Day or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elvina Kalieva and Kayla Day in the Guadalajara Open Akron, originally scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elvina Kalieva' if Elvina Kalieva advances against Kayla Day. This market will resolve to 'Kayla Day' if Kayla Day advances against Elvina Kalieva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Kayla Day2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Kayla Day@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +31.0pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY Kayla Day@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +23.0pp
Latest book event: Kayla Day UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $2.4K → $3.4K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elvina Kalieva; negative values favor Kayla Day. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKayla Day · $11.9K
6hKayla Day · $59.5K
24hKayla Day · $59.5K

Elvina Kalieva price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elvina Kalieva price. Kayla Day fills are converted to the complementary Elvina Kalieva probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h26.4¢▼ below by 26.4pp
VWAP 7d26.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elvina Kalieva price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$10.6K
55¢
$11.1K
50¢
$6.6K
45¢
$24.1K
40¢
$22.5K
35¢
$20.8K
30¢
$9.4K
25¢
$12.2K
20¢
$10.9K
15¢
$3.4K
10¢
$8.2K
5¢
$42.0K
0¢
← now
$43.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLKayla Day$25.6K@ 99.9¢
Runemup0x75f2…ff6d
🐋—22 minutes ago
SELLKayla Day$14.4K@ 98.0¢0x9abb…3f96🐋—23 minutes ago
BUYKayla Day$14.8K@ 93.0¢0x9abb…3f96🐋—26 minutes ago
BUYKayla Day$12.5K@ 53.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKayla Day$15.7K@ 63.4¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HomeRunHazardKayla Day$25.4K
BUY VWAP 85.7¢·8 fills
kkookkooKayla Day$15.7K
BUY VWAP 63.4¢·1 fill
0x9abb…3f96Kayla Day$14.8K
BUY VWAP 93.0¢·1 fill
RunemupKayla Day$13.1K
BUY VWAP 55.1¢·4 fills
RN1Kayla Day$12.5K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesKayla Day$11.7K
BUY VWAP 79.4¢·8 fills
tradecraftKayla Day$10.2K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.