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LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $438.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $889.8KEvent: LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
36.5¢
Natus Vincere payout
63.5¢
Movistar KOI payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:353 trades$356.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 55s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Movistar KOI · $13.3K net·27 wallets(1🐋)·$132.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMovistar KOI$35.3K@ 100¢·5e46h

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-18 21:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 4 against Movistar KOI.

•This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win Game 4 against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Natus Vincere and Movistar KOI in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 4 against Movistar KOI. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win Game 4 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 1m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 1m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h4 linked markets · $141.5K gross
fantasy77883 linked markets · $108.8K gross
bloodmaster4 linked markets · $91.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 65.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -62.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Movistar KOI UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $4.1K → $3.6K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor Movistar KOI. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $17.0K
6hMovistar KOI · $21.8K
24hMovistar KOI · $21.8K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. Movistar KOI fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h25.6¢▲ above by 10.9pp
VWAP 7d25.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.4K
70¢
$3.0K
65¢
$9.5K
60¢
$9.8K
55¢
$30.2K
50¢
$4.3K
45¢
$14.5K
40¢
$16.8K
35¢
← now
$92.6K
30¢
$3.8K
25¢
$11.3K
20¢
$1.5K
15¢
$188
10¢
$16.7K
5¢
$10.6K
0¢
$130.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMovistar KOI$35.3K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMovistar KOI$11.2K@ 99.9¢
trgparking0xe361…ae44
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMovistar KOI$21.8K@ 98.6¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMovistar KOI$13.0K@ 99.0¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMovistar KOI$12.3K@ 63.1¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

5e46hMovistar KOI$34.7K
BUY VWAP 98.7¢·2 fills
fantasy7788Natus Vincere$22.6K
BUY VWAP 54.3¢·6 fills
vtcchampion52Movistar KOI$14.0K
BUY VWAP 78.1¢·7 fills
fkgggg2mouzfuriaNatus Vincere$13.9K
BUY VWAP 32.0¢·4 fills
Sunshine.SmileMovistar KOI$13.6K
BUY VWAP 63.2¢·2 fills
fkcvffcjtNatus Vincere$11.4K
BUY VWAP 53.3¢·6 fills
trgparkingMovistar KOI$11.2K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.