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Szczecin: Filip Pieczonka vs Marco Trungelliti

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $841.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $582.9KEvent: Szczecin: Filip Pieczonka vs Marco Trungelliti
0.1¢
Filip Pieczonka
100.0¢
Marco Trungelliti
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:228 trades$142.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marco Trungelliti · $9.9K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$80.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarco Trungelliti$12.4K@ 92¢·BLAHBLAHBLAH-298

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Marco Trungelliti pressure: $22.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$22.6K
6h
−$12.7K
tracked
$142.1K

13 verified profitable wallets: Marco Trungelliti · $9.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -72.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Marco Trungelliti or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-24 08:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Filip Pieczonka and Marco Trungelliti in the Szczecin, originally scheduled for September 17, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Filip Pieczonka' if Filip Pieczonka advances against Marco Trungelliti. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Filip Pieczonka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Filip Pieczonka2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Filip Pieczonka@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +17.0pp1h INVALIDATED -38.0pp
Latest book event: Marco Trungelliti UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $1.5K → $6.6K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Filip Pieczonka; negative values favor Marco Trungelliti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarco Trungelliti · $22.6K
6hMarco Trungelliti · $12.7K
24hMarco Trungelliti · $12.7K

Filip Pieczonka price VWAP

Volume-weighted Filip Pieczonka price. Marco Trungelliti fills are converted to the complementary Filip Pieczonka probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h37.3¢▼ below by 37.3pp
VWAP 7d37.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Filip Pieczonka price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$29
85¢
$3.7K
80¢
$5.7K
75¢
$14.6K
70¢
$13.9K
65¢
$10.1K
60¢
$2.1K
55¢
$1.3K
50¢
$5.9K
45¢
$3
40¢
$0
35¢
$466
30¢
$1.5K
25¢
$7.2K
20¢
$12.2K
15¢
$15.1K
10¢
$10.4K
5¢
$24.0K
0¢
← now
$13.8K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMarco Trungelliti$11.1K@ 96.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYMarco Trungelliti$12.4K@ 92.0¢
BLAHBLAHBLAH-2980x0210…4deb
🐋—43 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Marco Trungelliti$17.6K
BUY VWAP 24.9¢·4 fills
0x1610…ae49Filip Pieczonka$16.5K
BUY VWAP 16.2¢·9 fills
BLAHBLAHBLAH-298Marco Trungelliti$12.4K
BUY VWAP 92.0¢·1 fill
FlaznorpMarco Trungelliti$11.5K
BUY VWAP 84.1¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.