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Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)

● quote 44s ago
Sports→Closes: 3 minutesLiquidity: $134.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $3.1KEvent: Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
39.5¢
Cleveland Guardians
60.5¢
Chicago White Sox
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets95Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$24.0K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 78 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chicago White Sox · $4.5K net·4 wallets·$4.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChicago White Sox$8.5K@ 59¢·ic4cream

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$23.7K
tracked
$24.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: Chicago White Sox · $4.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 78 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 17:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game by 2 or more runs.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for September 16 at 1:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20263 linked markets · $21.4K gross
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $17.5K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $11.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cleveland Guardians; negative values favor Chicago White Sox. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCleveland Guardians · $0
6hChicago White Sox · $23.7K
24hChicago White Sox · $23.7K

Cleveland Guardians price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cleveland Guardians price. Chicago White Sox fills are converted to the complementary Cleveland Guardians probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h41.4¢▼ below by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d41.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cleveland Guardians price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$24.0K
35¢
← now
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ic4creamChicago White Sox$10.5K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.