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Sao Paulo Open: Mary Stoiana vs Paula Badosa

Sports→Settlement: Paula BadosaLiquidity: $211.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $248.5KEvent: Sao Paulo Open: Mary Stoiana vs Paula Badosa
0.0¢
Mary Stoiana payout
100.0¢
Paula Badosa payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:74 trades$105.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 101 min agoofficial metadata 87 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Paula Badosa · $18.3K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$28.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPaula Badosa$16.6K@ 83¢·0xae95…17b8

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Paula Badosa. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-25 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mary Stoiana and Paula Badosa in the Sao Paulo Open, originally scheduled for September 18, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mary Stoiana' if Mary Stoiana advances against Paula Badosa. This market will resolve to 'Paula Badosa' if Paula Badosa advances against Mary Stoiana. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Paula Badosa3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Paula Badosa@ 83.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Paula Badosa DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $44.5K → $21.9K · 70s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mary Stoiana; negative values favor Paula Badosa. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPaula Badosa · $14.1K
6hPaula Badosa · $40.7K
24hPaula Badosa · $53.2K

Mary Stoiana price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mary Stoiana price. Paula Badosa fills are converted to the complementary Mary Stoiana probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h15.3¢▼ below by 15.3pp
VWAP 7d15.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mary Stoiana price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$20.6K
25¢
$11.9K
20¢
$2.0K
15¢
$20.6K
10¢
$17.7K
5¢
$6.1K
0¢
← now
$26.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPaula Badosa$16.6K@ 83.0¢0xae95…17b8🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYPaula Badosa$10.6K@ 69.9¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xae95…17b8Paula Badosa$16.6K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·1 fill
yupiiiiiiiiiPaula Badosa$15.7K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Paula Badosa$10.6K
BUY VWAP 69.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.