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Spread: West Virginia (-0.5)

● quote 4 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $29.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $111.3KEvent: West Virginia vs. Virginia
22.0¢
West Virginia
78.0¢
Virginia
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution73Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$29.1K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVirginia$4.7K@ 26¢·unknowngambler

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Virginia pressure: $2.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.8K
6h
−$2.8K
tracked
$29.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: West Virginia · $1.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Virginia or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-19 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "West Virginia" if West Virginia win the game by 1 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Virginia".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 19 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "West Virginia" if West Virginia win the game by 1 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Virginia". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $13.8K gross
unknowngambler2 linked markets · $10.1K gross
0x3561…f1b72 linked markets · $100 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor West Virginia; negative values favor Virginia. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVirginia · $2.8K
6hVirginia · $2.8K
24hVirginia · $25.7K

West Virginia price VWAP

Volume-weighted West Virginia price. Virginia fills are converted to the complementary West Virginia probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.0¢
VWAP 24h66.9¢▼ below by 44.9pp
VWAP 7d66.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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West Virginia price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$8.6K
70¢
$16.1K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$4.4K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AvocadosFromMexicoVirginia$10.1K
BUY VWAP 24.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.