PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $46.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $720.0KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
13.0¢
Aurora Gaming
87.0¢
Vitality
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:98 trades$278.1K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Vitality · $48.9K net·7 wallets(2🐋)·$49.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVitality$34.0K@ 73¢·0xf559…f462

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Vitality pressure: $15.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.8K
6h
−$132.4K
tracked
$278.1K

7 verified profitable wallets: Vitality · $48.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 85% · priority 67

Since latest liquidity absorption: +15.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 15.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Vitality or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Vitality.

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against Aurora Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand Final match between Aurora Gaming and Vitality in the StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Vitality. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against Aurora Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xc323…00772 linked markets · $49.2K gross
CORGI82 linked markets · $35.8K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $30.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Vitality@ 73.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +16.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Vitality@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +14.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 28.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -11.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Vitality@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +9.0pp
Latest book event: Vitality UP 13.0pp · near-book depth $67 → $30 · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor Vitality. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVitality · $15.8K
6hVitality · $132.4K
24hVitality · $132.4K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. Vitality fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current13.0¢
VWAP 24h26.2¢▼ below by 13.2pp
VWAP 7d26.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$5.9K
25¢
$250.7K
20¢
$179
15¢
$5.8K
10¢
← now
$15.5K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYVitality$19.7K@ 73.5¢
jaytee1580xa2c9…2c23
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYVitality$23.3K@ 72.0¢0xc323…0077🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora Gaming$14.5K@ 28.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYVitality$20.0K@ 73.0¢
maxiforza0x018c…9794
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYVitality$14.6K@ 73.0¢
XANTARESPEEK0x0915…63da
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYVitality$10.0K@ 73.0¢
maxiforza0x018c…9794
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYVitality$34.0K@ 73.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAurora Gaming$18.9K@ 27.0¢
1117gudu2310x0562…18a4
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYVitality$21.5K@ 73.0¢
Ancient-Strike0xc9ae…b9e0
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner
40.5¢$324.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner
38.5¢$154.3Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
51.0¢$21.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vikings vs. Bears
34.5¢$1.6Mpriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Panthers vs. Falcons
55.5¢$1.4Mpriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bengals vs. Texans
42.5¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: BAL (-8.5)
47.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Eagles vs. Titans
74.5¢$1.1Mpriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf559…f462Vitality$34.0K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
maxiforzaVitality$30.0K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·2 fills
0xc323…0077Vitality$24.6K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·2 fills
CORGI8Aurora Gaming$22.9K
BUY VWAP 27.7¢·3 fills
1117gudu231Aurora Gaming$22.5K
BUY VWAP 27.2¢·2 fills
Ancient-StrikeVitality$21.5K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
jaytee158Vitality$19.7K
BUY VWAP 73.5¢·1 fill
XANTARESPEEKVitality$14.6K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.