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Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $147.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $16.0KEvent: LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
72.0¢
G2 Esports
28.0¢
Movistar KOI
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets18Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$32.8K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 48 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:G2 Esports · $516 net·3 wallets·$2.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYG2 Esports$10.4K@ 52¢·PetsViljandist

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

G2 Esports pressure: $6.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.4K
6h
+$28.1K
tracked
$32.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: G2 Esports · $516 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 48 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from G2 Esports or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports wins 2 or more games than Movistar KOI in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Movistar KOI".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between G2 Esports and Movistar KOI in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports wins 2 or more games than Movistar KOI in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Movistar KOI". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $71.0K gross
five51202 linked markets · $63.1K gross
0x076d…8d4c4 linked markets · $22.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: G2 Esports UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $3.6K → $3.5K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor G2 Esports; negative values favor Movistar KOI. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hG2 Esports · $6.4K
6hG2 Esports · $28.1K
24hG2 Esports · $27.1K

G2 Esports price VWAP

Volume-weighted G2 Esports price. Movistar KOI fills are converted to the complementary G2 Esports probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current72.0¢
VWAP 24h52.1¢▲ above by 19.9pp
VWAP 7d52.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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G2 Esports price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$4.8K
50¢
$25.5K
45¢
$2.4K
40¢
$83
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYG2 Esports$10.4K@ 52.0¢
PetsViljandist0x6e9f…0eae
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$791.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
86.0¢$656.1Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PetsViljandistG2 Esports$18.9K
BUY VWAP 51.9¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.