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UFC 332: Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

● quote 29s ago
Sports→Closes: about 13 hoursLiquidity: $115.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $111.7KEvent: UFC 332: Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
44.5¢
Marvin Vettori
55.5¢
Ismail Naurdiev
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:7 trades$164 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 131 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIsmail Naurdiev$33.7K@ 56¢·rabbitfoot1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$149
tracked
$164

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 131 minutes old.
  • •Less than 13h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Marvin Vettori" if Marvin Vettori is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ismail Naurdiev at UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang, scheduled for October 3, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Ismail Naurdiev" if Ismail Naurdiev is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Marvin Vettori" if Marvin Vettori is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ismail Naurdiev at UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang, scheduled for October 3, 2026. It will resolve to "Ismail Naurdiev" if Ismail Naurdiev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 17, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Ismail Naurdiev@ 56.0¢24h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Marvin Vettori@ 45.0¢24h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marvin Vettori; negative values favor Ismail Naurdiev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarvin Vettori · $0
6hMarvin Vettori · $149
24hMarvin Vettori · $151

Marvin Vettori price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marvin Vettori price. Ismail Naurdiev fills are converted to the complementary Marvin Vettori probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h45.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d44.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marvin Vettori price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$25.9K
40¢
← now
$33.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYIsmail Naurdiev$33.7K@ 56.0¢
rabbitfoot10x10a6…4d8b
🐋—1 day ago
BUYMarvin Vettori$18.9K@ 45.0¢
Roulette10x05a7…42e6
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

rabbitfoot1Ismail Naurdiev$33.7K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
Roulette1Marvin Vettori$18.9K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.